National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Tropical Storm FRED Graphics

Tropical Storm FRED 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 02:41:44 GMT

Tropical Storm FRED 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 03:07:50 GMT

Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015

000
WTNT41 KNHC 010240
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015

Fred's inner-core deep convection has collapsed, and what
thunderstorm activity remains is very ragged in appearance.
Although the convection may make somewhat of a comeback on the
diurnal maximum tomorrow morning, the current degradation of the
cloud pattern necessitates downgrading the system to a tropical
storm.  The current intensity estimate is a rather uncertain 60
kt.  As Fred moves away from the Cape Verde Islands, the
environment
ahead becomes increasingly unfavorable with increasing shear,
progressively drier mid-level air and increased stability.  The
official intensity forecast is a blend of the latest SHIPS and LGEM
guidance.  Given the storm's current appearance and the hostile
future environment, however, Fred may weaken faster than indicated
here.

The center has become difficult to track, and my best guess of the
initial motion is 310/10 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the north of
Fred is forecast to build gradually westward.  This should cause
the cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest.  A more westward
track with time is also consistent with Fred becoming a shallower
cyclone steered more by the low-level flow.  The official forecast
remains on the southern side of the guidance envelope and is mostly
a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.  This is also very
similar to the previous NHC track forecast.

Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for
the
Cape Verde Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 17.9N  25.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 18.6N  26.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 19.6N  28.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 20.5N  29.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 21.1N  31.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 22.2N  34.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 23.5N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 25.0N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)

...FRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 31 the center of FRED was located near 17.9, -25.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015

000
WTNT31 KNHC 010238
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015

...FRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 25.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF SANTO ANTAO IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The meteorological service of the Cape Verde Islands has changed
the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Sao Vicente,
Sao Nicolau, Santo Antao, and Santa Luzia, and discontinued all
warnings for the remainder of the Cape Verde Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Vicente, Sao Nicolau, Santo Antao, and Santa Luzia in the
  Cape Verde Islands

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 25.2 West. Fred is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday.  On the forecast track,
the center will continue to move away from the Cape Verde Islands.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Continued weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the
Cape Verde Islands within the warning area for the next few hours.
Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this
advisory,
and in some elevated locations can be even greater.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL:  Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 10 inches.  These rains are likely to produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015

000
FONT11 KNHC 010238
PWSAT1
                                                                   

TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9            

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015              

0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015                                           

                                                                   

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE
17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 

60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                                        

                                                                   

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

                                                                   

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

                                                                   

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                 

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                 

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                 

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          

        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            

PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE        

PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 

                                                                   

                                                                   

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

                                                                   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z
SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 

             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z
SUN
                                                                   

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION       KT                                                  

                                                                   

$$                                                                 

FORECASTER PASCH                                                   

Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015

000
WTNT21 KNHC 010237
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED
THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAO VICENTE,
SAO NICOLAU...SANTO ANTAO...AND SANTA LUZIA...AND DISCONTINUED ALL
WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO VICENTE...SAO NICOLAU...SANTO ANTAO...AND SANTA LUZIA IN THE
  CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  25.2W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  25.2W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  25.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.6N  26.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.6N  28.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.5N  29.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.1N  31.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.2N  34.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH
DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.5N  38.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 25.0N  41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N  25.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 312340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fred, located near the northwestern Cape Verde Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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