National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 292321
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms is
associated with a tropical wave located in the central Caribbean
Sea. Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more
favorable for development on Saturday while the wave moves into the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. However, land interaction will likely
limit significant development as the disturbance moves across the
Yucatan peninsula on Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for some gradual development once the system moves
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Post-Tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 14:51:49 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 15:03:45 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 24

Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

000
WTNT44 KNHC 291450
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

Cristobal has completed its transformation into an extratropical
cyclone with all of the cold cloud tops located well north and
northwest of the exposed center.  A frontal boundary has also
wrapped around the southern portion of the circulation.  A recent
ASCAT pass revealed a large area of 50-60 kt winds to the southeast
of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at
65 kt.  Although some gradual weakening is forecast during the next
day or so, the low is expected to remain a large and powerful
cyclone over the north Atlantic until it merges with another large
low near Iceland in 36 to 48 hours.

The cyclone has been moving northeast at more than 40 kt during the
past 6 to 12 hours.  However, the low is expected to slow down some
while it continues on a northeastward heading in deep layer
southwesterly flow during the next day or so.  The official track
forecast lies between the ECMWF and GFS solution and has been
coordinated with guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system.  Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 45.5N  47.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  30/0000Z 48.2N  41.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/1200Z 51.5N  35.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  31/0000Z 55.0N  27.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown


Post-Tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

000
FONT14 KNHC 291450
PWSAT4
                                                                   

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014              

1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014                                           

                                                                   

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED 

NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        

SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                   

                                                                   

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

                                                                   

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

                                                                   

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                 

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                 

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                 

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          

        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            

PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE        

PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 

                                                                   

                                                                   

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

                                                                   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z
TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 

             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z
WED
                                                                   

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION       KT                                                  

                                                                   

HIBERNIA OILFD 34 65   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)  
X(65)
 
$$                                                                 

FORECASTER BROWN                                                   


Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)

...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 29 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 45.5, -47.1 with movement NE at 44 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 24

Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

000
WTNT34 KNHC 291449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.5N 47.1W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR
44 MPH...70 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS.  THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST MERGE WITH ANOTHER
LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
310
MILES...500 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Post-Tropical Cyclone CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 24

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

000
WTNT24 KNHC 291449
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1500 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 270SE 220SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 180SE 700SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.5N  47.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N  48.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 48.2N  41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 51.5N  35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 55.0N  27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 270SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.5N  47.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON CRISTOBAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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