National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015
000 WTNT41 KNHC 010240 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015 Fred's inner-core deep convection has collapsed, and what thunderstorm activity remains is very ragged in appearance. Although the convection may make somewhat of a comeback on the diurnal maximum tomorrow morning, the current degradation of the cloud pattern necessitates downgrading the system to a tropical storm. The current intensity estimate is a rather uncertain 60 kt. As Fred moves away from the Cape Verde Islands, the environment ahead becomes increasingly unfavorable with increasing shear, progressively drier mid-level air and increased stability. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. Given the storm's current appearance and the hostile future environment, however, Fred may weaken faster than indicated here. The center has become difficult to track, and my best guess of the initial motion is 310/10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Fred is forecast to build gradually westward. This should cause the cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest. A more westward track with time is also consistent with Fred becoming a shallower cyclone steered more by the low-level flow. The official forecast remains on the southern side of the guidance envelope and is mostly a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions. This is also very similar to the previous NHC track forecast. Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 17.9N 25.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 18.6N 26.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 19.6N 28.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 20.5N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 21.1N 31.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 22.2N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 23.5N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 25.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
...FRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 31 the center of FRED was located near 17.9, -25.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015
000 WTNT31 KNHC 010238 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015 ...FRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 25.2W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF SANTO ANTAO IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The meteorological service of the Cape Verde Islands has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Sao Vicente, Sao Nicolau, Santo Antao, and Santa Luzia, and discontinued all warnings for the remainder of the Cape Verde Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Vicente, Sao Nicolau, Santo Antao, and Santa Luzia in the Cape Verde Islands For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 25.2 West. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will continue to move away from the Cape Verde Islands. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the Cape Verde Islands within the warning area for the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations can be even greater. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015
000 FONT11 KNHC 010238 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015
000 WTNT21 KNHC 010237 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAO VICENTE, SAO NICOLAU...SANTO ANTAO...AND SANTA LUZIA...AND DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO VICENTE...SAO NICOLAU...SANTO ANTAO...AND SANTA LUZIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 25.2W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 25.2W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 25.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.6N 26.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.6N 28.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.5N 29.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.1N 31.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.2N 34.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.5N 38.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 25.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 25.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
ABNT20 KNHC 312340
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fred, located near the northwestern Cape Verde Islands.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.