National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Tropical Depression FIVE Graphics

Tropical Depression FIVE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 02:37:33 GMT

Tropical Depression FIVE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 03:03:47 GMT

Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

000
WTNT45 KNHC 020236
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

The depression appears to be gradually organizing this evening as
deep convection has developed over the eastern portion of the large
circulation.  Last-light visible satellite pictures suggested that
the center of the depression has likely reformed farther north,
which is not surprising given that the depression is still in its
formative stage.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the depression in a few hours, and this
should assist in determining the center position overnight.  Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial wind speed of
25 kt.

Although the depression is forecast to strengthen some on Tuesday,
moderate northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to
inhibit significant intensification before landfall.  None of the
reliable intensity models show much strengthening and the NHC
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion is 310/9 kt.  The dynamical
model guidance indicate that the depression will turn west-
northwestward on Tuesday to the south of a mid-level ridge along
the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast.  The guidance is in good agreement
on
this scenario and the NHC track is close to the middle of the
guidance envelope.  The updated NHC forecast track is slightly
north
of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial
position.
Once inland, the cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate over the
mountains of eastern Mexico.

The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, which is likely to cause flash-flooding and mud slides
over portions of eastern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 21.0N  93.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 21.7N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 22.3N  96.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 22.7N  98.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Summary for Tropical Depression FIVE (AT5/AL052014)

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 the center of FIVE was located near 21.0, -93.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression FIVE Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

000
WTNT35 KNHC 020236
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 93.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Tropical Depression FIVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

000
FONT15 KNHC 020236
PWSAT5
                                                                   

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2       

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014              

0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014                                           

                                                                   

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR   

LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   

WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                              

                                                                   

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

                                                                   

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

                                                                   

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                 

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                 

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                 

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          

        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            

PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE        

PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                 

                                                                   

                                                                   

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

                                                                   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z
SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 

             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z
SUN
                                                                   

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION       KT                                                  

                                                                   

BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   3( 3)  17(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)  
X(20)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   8( 8)  14(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)  
X(22)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X(
9)
 
$$                                                                 

FORECASTER BROWN                                                   


Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

000
WTNT25 KNHC 020235
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  93.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  93.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  93.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.7N  95.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.3N  96.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.7N  98.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N  93.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 012344
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricance Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression Five, located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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